HEALTHY BREADTH BENEATH INDEX STAGNATION
Hello and thanks for reading this week’s No Straight Lines Investments blog, I am grateful for your attention.
If you simply looked at the price action of the S&P 500 over the past several months, you would see the semblance of a range trade revealing itself.
An overused cliche to describe the market, really J?
Sometimes it pays to keep things simple. If we have learned only one thing from this past 2 weeks, it is that ANYTHING can happen.
A few key takeaways that are the focus of my attention:
Q4 Earnings Are Delivering
As of writing, 61% of S&P 500 members have reported Q4 results, delivering 12% y/y earnings growth thus far, ahead of expectations of 8%. The median stock in the S&P 500 posted 7% y/y growth against the consensus of 6%, all data from David Kostin of GS:
The bar was set higher for Q4 but the results have been solid.
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Here’s what’s in store:
Portfolio Stocks - stock selection is vital in 2025. I focus on 2 of my technology names and energy names this week. One of the ideas is trading at a discount valuation due to a narrative that doesn’t hold up to economic scrutiny.
Flows - Q4 results have bridged the market to the buyback open window. How are professional and retail investors repositioning based on earnings, DeepSeek, tariffs and more? If you don’t understand where the $$ are flowing, you are investing at a disadvantage.
Charts of the Week - ytd winners (may surprise you), more takeouts, technology, travel, freight, energy and more.
Macro that Matters - some important data releases, somewhat overshadowed by White House pronouncements.
If this is it, thanks for reading and good luck with your investments this week!
You can follow me on X (@NSLInvestments), LinkedIn: Jonathan Lansky or using the chat feature on Substack.
