THE STOCK MARKET AIN'T MARCH MADNESS
Hello and thanks for reading this week’s edition of the No Straight Lines Investments blog.
What does the title mean?
One of the myriad drivers of the sustained popularity of the NCAA Women’s/Men’s basketball tournament is that the games are single elimination, meaning that the losing team’s season is over.
Although it can sometimes feel the same for an equity investor, the reality is that owning stocks isn’t binary, there are degrees of success and failure, much of which is determined by time horizon.
In college hoops, the winning team (unless it’s an OT game) is known after 40 minutes.
The increasingly short term focus of today’s equity culture works well when trends are durable (AI being the most recent example).
It is far less successful in an environment of policy confusion (like the current backdrop), so the failure can feel absolute and the pressure to adjust positions on the fly is intense.
Given that, I thought it would be constructive to attempt to quantify what exactly is “priced in”, recognizing at the outset that the exercise is almost impossible.
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Here’s what’s in store:
Portfolio Stocks - this week I feature #copper, #capitalmarkets, #uranium, #energy stocks in the portfolio. The cumulative, unweighted return in my names from write-up is >42% as of last Friday’s close. My hope is to give my subscribers one or two fantastic stock ideas each year.
Flows - where are retail and professional investors allocating $$. If you don’t understand flow, you are missing a piece of the investing puzzle.
Charts of the Week - best performing sectors and stocks and a whole lot more. A great way to capture the mood of the market through technical analysis and fundamental commentary.
Macro that Matters - although policy confusion is overshadowing everything else, I analyze the releases that I think I most crucial.
If this is it, thanks for reading and good luck with your investments.
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